Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Decision 2008: Iowa down to the wire

Now with Christmas over, the candidates are back on the trail fundraising, speaking shaking hands, doing whatever they can to get ready for the First in the Nation contest, the Iowa Caucus. Republicans are neck and neck with new ARG polls suggesting amybe even a 3-way race or vene 4-way between Huckabee, Romney and even Sen. John McCain and Mayor Giuliani. Their polls had Huckabee 23% Romney 21% McCain 17% Giuliani 14%. Congressman Ron Paul scored 10% in the latest poll and Fred Thompson who needs a good showing here fell to 5th at 3%. These polls show a whole new ball game in Iowa. Huckabee must win Iowa now or his campaign will be finished. Romney could survive a loss in Iowa but a 3rd or 4th finish may kill his chances in New Hampshire. McCain if he can score 3rd or 4th or even 2nd he will be a very strong competitor to be reckoned with now with his NH numbers so high. Giuliani isn't expected to score high in any early state so any place would be good for his campaign. We'll stick to out predictions of 1st: Huckabee 2nd: Romney 3rd: McCain 4th: Thompson. These new Iowa polls also show Hillary way out in front in Iowa. If Sen. Clinton wins Iowa she pretty much caps the nomination. The momentum would be in her collumn and thus swing every state her direction. Obama must get organized as he was a month ago and win this caucus. Edwards must also win here, but a win for Edwards is ultimately a win for Hillary. So it comes down to really If Obama and Hillary winning Iowa that shapes the rest of the race.

New American Reserach Group Iowa Polls
(R)Huckabee 23%
(R)Romney 21%
(R)McCain 17%
(R)Giuliani 14%
(R)Paul 10%
(R)Thompson 3%
(R)Hunter 2%
(R)Keyes 2%
(D)Clinton 34%
(D)Edwards 20%
(D)Obama 19%
(D)Biden 8%
(D)Richardson 5%
(D)Dodd 2%
(D)Kucinich 2%
(D)Gravel -%

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