Sunday, December 30, 2007
Friday, December 28, 2007
Iowa GOP: Well we all know this race is coming down to 2 men, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. We may see a darkhorse make this competitive, however if that was going to happen that candidate would be already breathing down the 2 frontrunners's necks. It appears Fred Thompson needs a strong finish here or it will be his last stand. Thompson's Iowa Tour has made him competitve with the surging John McCain for 3rd place, however McCain could survive without a 3rd place finish as he is banking on NH. Thompson needs this or his dead. McCain is starting to campaign now in Iowa so should be interesting to see if Thompson can survive. Huckabee's lead is holding on so I expect Huckabee to defeat Romney by at least 5 points. Even if this Bhutto crisis has hurt his foriegn policy stance. Romney can't get a bounce from that and likely it will only benefit McCain and Giuliani.
Iowa Democratic: The battle of the titans. The three frontrunners, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, are in a tight neck and neck race and once the dust clears from this showdown, the race could completely change. Edwards is gaining and Hillary is rising while Obama is slipping. Should this continue, Obama could be severly wounded and Edwards could replace him as the Hillary Alternative. If Hillary wins Iowa its all over, she will lock up the nomination quickly adn we wont even need to tune in to Super Tuesday. Obama realy needs a 1st or 2nd finish here and Hillary can not win or the Democratic nomination race will be done.
New Hampshire GOP: This race is also a 2 man showdown. Mitt Romney and John McCain and we know this will be competitive. Romney began this 2 day ad war that may control the rest of this primary. McCain is rumored to be striking make with negative ads, since Romney already has gone negative. McCain's strategy is relying on his foriegn policy experience and his latest endorsements to swing his way. McCain seemed not interested in getting in Romney's attack battle, but it appears he may be pressured into it. Romney is slipping here and now is neck and neck with McCain and McCain is known for his comebacks in this state. McCain wins here he wil surge to frontrunner status, and Romney will be severly wounded. Giuliani is hoping for at least a 3rd place finish, but Huckabee could surge with a win in Iowa to get 3rd here.
New Hampshire Democratic: This race will likely be decided on Iowa's result. Hillary wins Iowa she wins here. Obama wins Iowa he wins NH. Edwards likely can't comeback to win here but Iowa's momentum can't be underestimated. This state is crucial however to Hillary's startegy. The Former First Lady could be damaged severly if she doesn't win here. Obama needs this state if he loses Iowa. We can't predict anything without any results from Iowa.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Sunday, December 23, 2007
1st: Mike Huckabee (rising) Iowa seems to be leaning his way and now with SC, Michigan, Florida and national polls also in Huckabee's pocket, he once again earns a 1st place from us. Huckabee will be a force to be reckoned with after Iowa. He wins there he will be the frontrunner for the nomination without a doubt.
2nd Tied: Mitt Romney (falling) With his lead in Iowa gone and and his lead in NH down to 3, Romney could very well lose both states and his early state strategy is gone and thus his campaign for president. He needs a win in NH to stay alive. Without it hes gone.
2nd Tied: John McCain (rising) He's BACK!!!!!!!! McCain is now in a dead heat for 3rd in Iowa and a win in NH. With both he can secure Michigan, Nevada and possibly South Carolina. McCain needs a win however in NH. If Romney wins he'll steal the momentum back.
4th: Rudy Giulian (falling) Who would have thought Mike Huckabee would be the frontrunner and Giuliani would be near death in the campaign with less than 11 days left till the Iowa Caucus. Scandals and publicity against Rudy really has hurt him and he will likely now place in the top 4 in any early state, execpt for Florida. He needs Florida, without it he'll do poorly on Super Tuesday.
5th: Fred Thompson (falling) Now in a fight for 3rd in Iowa. Without at least 3rd Fred's out. Thompson now falls to 4th in SC, a must win. I just dont see any possibility Fred can win, so will drop him to 5th.
1st Tied: Barak Obama (rising) Yes for the first time Obama has done and shares the frontrunner spot with Sen. Clinton. Obama may very well win all the early states and crush Hillary in Super Tuesday if he infact wins Iowa. He needs a win in Iowa however. 2nd or 3rd to either Hillary or Edwards would kill his campaign and leave Hillary as the nominee.
1st: Tied: Hillary Clinton (falling) Hillary needs a win in NH or she could be in some trouble. The momentum goes to Obama and he could swing the whole thing in an upset. Clinton is now far from having this locked.
3rd: John Edwards (rising) Edwards could in fact win Iowa and not too many are acknowledge that. Edwards however could ahnd the nomination to Hillary. If he wins Iowa Hillary will surge and Obama will fall. Edwards better back off if he doesn't want Hillary to win.
4th: Bill Richardson (steady) Richardson now thinks he has a shot at the top job instead of Hillary's #2. well better get your eyes examined Bill you have no chance.
5th: Joe Biden (steady) too bad the most experience Democrat running is doing so badly. Sorry Joe you dont have a shot either.
(Edwards wil be out)
(Thompson will be otu)
No other Dems.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
1st: Mike Huckabee (steady) I bet if you told someone 1 year ago Mike Huckabee would be the frontrunner that would have laughed. Now its a reality and a real possibility he could win the nomination. Huckabee leads now in Iowa, SC, Michigan and even Florida!
2nd: Mitt Romney (falling) Losing his lead fast! Romney could be out even before Super Tuesday if somehow Iowa and NH slip from his grasp. New Polls have him slowly gaining on Huckabee, but can he top Huckabee's mounting momentum. Romney better start to sweat.
3rd: John McCain (rising) New Rasmussen Polls have McCain barely trailing Romney 31-27% in NH and now at 14% in Iowa at 3rd place. McCain is also surging quickly and is far from politically dead. I have said it before and Ill say it again McCain will finish well in Iowa and win NH and then the nomination.
4th: Rudy Giuliani (falling) Giuliani now seems to be politically dead. His offices are closing in Iowa and NH, and now Giuliani must rely on winning Florida, a state he is now trailing. Giuliani is also falling in California a big state on Super Tuesday and Huckabee and McCain are gaining. Looks like you all took my advice and starting looking at the best candidates.
5th: Fred Thompson (falling) Thompson needs a 3rd in Iowa and with McCain gaining from the Des Moines Register Endorsement, Thompson may be out before NH. Thompson needs a 3rd just to raise money and keep voters in tact until South Carolina where he's slipped to 4th. I really can't see anyway Fred can win this one. I expect him to drop out and endorse McCain after Iowa.
1st: Hillary Clinton (falling) Clinton's lead in all early states is long gone. Her time as frontrunner may be over. She could lose the first 3 contests. She might have to rely also on a win in Florida to win in Super Tuesday. Hillary will likely not be the nominee in January and maybe not even at all.
2nd: Barack Obama (rising) Obama now leads in Iowa and SC. Both could catapult him to knocking Hillary (did I actually say that) out of the race. He win Florida the Former First Lady might be in some real trouble. Obama will likely win Iowa now and maybe NH. Amazing that 3 years ago we didn't even know a Barack Obama.
3rd: John Edwards (rising) Edwards needs to win Iowa and hes only down by single digits. Edwards may surprise us all, but really a win for Edwards is a win for Clinton. That shuts Obama down and leaves her to crush Edwards in NH, SC, FL and Super Tuesday, just like Kerry did in 2004.
4th: Bill Richardson (steady) Richardson needs a win in Nevada and he wont get it so look for him to be applying for Hillary's VP soon.
5th: Joe Biden (steady) Remember this 1 month from now Biden will announce his candidacy for re-election. He's done.