Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Decision 2008: Eve of the Caucus

This is probably the most competitive Iowa Caucus in decades. All polls show different alternatives. Anyone one of the frontrunners could emerge victorious in Iowa. On the Republican side the Polling Firms all sow either Huckabee or Romney winning Iowa and McCain or Thompson from in 3rd. On the Democratic Side we see Hillary, Obama and Edwards still deadlocked. They are within 2-3 points of each other and polls, all show a different order for each. All can't afford a 3rd place finish. Its certain we could even have a tie or near tie in the caucs. What does this mean for New Hampshire? For the Republicans if Romney win Iowa he will more than likely win NH, if Huckabee wins then either McCain or Romney could win NH. McCain has gained the lead in NH, and if he wins there Romney is finished. On the Democratic side Hillary needs at least a close 2nd in Iowa to hold on to NH. If Obama wins Iowa he could certainly come close to winning NH. If Hillary wins Iowa its over. If Edwards wins Iowa Hillary will hold on and Edwards will come in 2nd and Obama is finished.

Our Final Predictions
Iowa Republican
1st: Huckabee
2nd: Romney
3rd: McCain
4th: Thompson
5th: Paul
6th: Giuliani
7th: Hunter
8th: Keyes

Iowa Democratic
1st: Clinton
2nd: Edwards
3rd: Obama
4th: Biden
5th: Richardson
6th: Dodd
7th: Kucinich
8th: Gravel

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