Thursday, January 17, 2008

Decision 2008: Nevada and South Carolina

2 contests this weekend and here how hey are shaping up.

Dem. Races: Hillary Vs. Obama goes to its worst, as the bitter fight moves to actual contest the first since Hillary's upset win in NH. In Nevada Clinton and Obama are neck and neck with some showing Edwards in the hunt, so what does this mean for each candidate. For the Clinton Campaign she is hoping to pull another upset in NV and some polls showing her in the lead. With the unions organizing Obama's supporters for the Caucuses she is going to have to work overtime to win here. For the Obama campaignhe hopes his recent endorsements and excitement of his campaign pulls off win #2 in a caucus. Obama needs to win to keep the momentum away from Hillary who leads him in most upcoming contests. Edwards is also hoping for a strong finish this weekend in NV. He hopes to at least come in 2nd, but he really needs a win here and polls showing him in striking distance. South Carolina for the Dems isn't till next Sat., but we thought we would give a little mention of it. In South Carolina with the overwhleming Black vote in SC, Obama has the advantage but the white is swinging Hillary's direction, and with her rising numbers she hopes she can end the Obama phonamonan this weekend with an upset win. Edwards will likely lose this primary, a state in won in 2004, and by a huge margin. Predictions: Hillary prevails in Nevada Obama 2nd Edwards 3rd and Obama edges Hillary out in SC by 5+ points.

GOP Race: Both contests for the Republicans is up this weekend, and the field may finally narrow after the weekend. Fmr. Sen. Fred Thompson who is polling about a tie for 3rd place in SC needs a win here, however that is very unlikely. 2 other men need wins this weekend. John McCain and Mike Huckabee and both say they win win. McCain is hoping history does repeat itself. In 2000 Governor Bush overwhelmed McCain here in SC and ended his campaign. McCain is leading all the polls and the momentum is still in his corner but can he hold on to it? Huckabee being from the South and he needs a win here. Huckabee is now in a fight for the South for McCain, and a win here would cripple his biggest rival according to polls. Romney is pulling out of SC however did make one stop there and re-aired his campaign ads so he hopes that will get him a strong 3rd place finish. He is hoping for a win in Nevada, where polls show him in another fight with Sen. McCain, but with McCain focusing entirely on SC, Romney will likely get win #3, but it may be his last. McCain is hoping his momentum helps him pick up a few delegates in Nevada and the rest of the candidates aren't concerned about Nevada. I predict McCain will win SC and Romney will revail in Nevada, with Thompson dropping out and endorsing McCain and the Huckabee campaign seriously wounded.

No comments: