Thursday, January 17, 2008

Decision 2008: Presidential Power Rankings #48

Iowa, NH, and Michigan are up, and we have 3 diffent winners. The most complexed Nomination race is on the way.


1st: John McCain (steady) Michigan was a sad upset for the McCain campaign, but with his lead holding in SC McCain still holds the frontrunner spot. His huge lead nationally and growing leads in Super Tuesday states, will catch up his weak funding. McCain needs a win in SC to keep frontrunner status. Without it his campaign will far all apart again and dont look for another comeback.

2nd: Mitt Romney (rising) Michigan put him back in the race and he leads the pack in fundraisng votes, states and the all-important delegate count. Romney is looking for his 3rd win in Nevada this weekend with polls favorable. Romney will need it with a likely 3rd or worse finish in South Carolina. The only question I have is where does the Romney campaign go after this weekend. he trails in every Super Tuesday state except his other 2 homestates of Utah and MA. Hs money is gone and he is speanding his own now. Romney will need some wins and a bounce to become viable.

3rd: Mike Huckabee (steady) Huckabee is rising in polls in SC slowly, however his slipping numbers in his stronghold of the south he needs a win this Saturday, or his win in Iowa will be long forgotten.

4th: Rudy Giuliani (falling) Giuliani is now in a 4-way fight for a win in Florida, his do or die state. Without a win there his Super Tuesday standing will fall apart quickly, and another candidat or candidates will emerge without him.

5th: Fred Thompson (rising) Thompson is rising and is up to 17% in SC but that is still only a fight for 3rd. He needs a win here to continue and without one he will be done. I expect Thompson to quit the race next week and endorse McCain.


1st: Hillary Clinton (rising) Hillary won a meaningless beauty contest in Michigan, however Hillary is closing the gap in SC, and even if she finishes in a strong 2nd she can spin it as a win. If she upsest Obama in Nevada as recent polling suggests she can hold the momentum into Florida and Super Tuesday where she holds substaintial leads in both.

2nd: Barack Obama (steady) Obama will likely win this weekend in both states and will ned both wins to overtake Hillary's wide Super Tuesday lead. If things hold Hillary could wipe Obama out in Super Tuesday in one fowl swoop. Obama needs convincing wins to hold onto the momentum in the race. Obama is far from out, but his campaign needs to be doing some manuvering.

3rd: John Edwards (falling) Edwards absolutel needs a upset win in Nevada and close 3rd in Sc to even be considered now and both seem unlikely. Edwards who was a serious candidate just so shortly ago, is a spoiler in the race to the 2-person primary battle.

4th: Dennis Kucinich (falling) Kucinich has neer been in the race but when he only got 5% in Michigan competing against Mr. Uncommitted and lost badly. The spoiler lives on however.

5th: Mike Gravel (falling) Gravel is done and you probably dont even know who he is.

Delegate Count
Republicans (1,191 in order to clinch nomination.)
(R)Mitt Romney 41
(R)John McCain 19
(R)Mike Huckabee 17
(R)Fred Thompson 8
(R)Ron Paul 4
(R)Duncan Hunter 1
(R)Rudy Giuliani 1

Democrats ( 2,208 in order to clinch nomination)
(D)Barack Obama 25
(D)Hillary Clinton 24
(D)John Edwards 18

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