Friday, January 25, 2008

Decision 2008: South Carolina and Florida.

Dems South Carolina:Well this weekend we have another contest for the Democrats, however this one is very crucial than the past Nevada. Polls have Barack Obama with a 7-22 point lead, but most show his lead slipping and Edwards is rising. Obama's support among white voters is gone which is surprising, since he carried Iowa and did well in NH, by winning the white votes because of the few minorities. Clinton is doing well and some have polls of her within single digits of the lead and if she can at least come within 10 she can spin that as a comeback and it will not hurt her standgins at all on Super Tuesday. Edwards needs a very strong finish, but I doubt he has the time to come in 2nd. He'll finish 3rd, but might break 20%. Our predictions, Obama will win by less than 7, Clinton close 2nd, Edwards not too far behind. Congressman Kucinich is dropping out of the race, so whatever support he had will go to Obama likely. Im kinda surprised I though Kucinich '04. would stay in the race till the convention liek he did in. He faces a tough re-election so that might have contributed.

GOP Florida: I'm getting really tired of this close races. I hopes there is a blowout, soon. This one 4-way race is now a 2-man race between guess who? John McCain and Mitt Romney. Who else. These two have been top rivals for most of the campaign and with this being their what well I guess 3rd 2-way race both 1 for 2. McCain held a small lead 3 days ago, however he and Romney our now deadlocked. 3 polls have McCain with a 2-5 point lead and 3 polls have Romney both with a 3-4 point lead. All the polls however show Giuliani slipping to a fight for 3rd, instead of first with Mike Huckabee. Giuliani needs a win here to continue. I expect McCain to eek out a narrow victory, but I wont count out the Mitt Machine as I have in the past. Either will be in 1st or 2nd, Giuliani 3rd, and Huckabee 4th. This will force Giulaini out, but surprisingly Huckabee still leads in some southern states such as Georgia, so I'm not willing to count him out. McCain leads in the Northeast, and whomever wins Florida may get a boost in CA where McCain currently leads. If McCain can hold on to the lead should he not win, he will be the nominee, and if wins FL, he will nearly clinch this thing on Super Tuesday. Romney needs a win here to make it an overall 2-way race.

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