Decision 2008: Presidential Power Rankings #45

Here is our final power rankings and our final annual end of the month rankings before the Iowa Caucus.

Republicans

1st: Mitt Romney (rising) Romney is the candidate best positioned to take the nomination. If he wins Iowa and NH he knocks out McCain and with Florida, Rudy will be out. Romney however needs a win in Iowa. He has regained or statistically tied Huckabee in Iowa with only 3 days left. Romney could be upsetted by both Huckabee and McCain and then Romney will be in trouble. Romney has enough money to continue well beyond losses in Iowa and NH should that happen.

2nd: John McCain (rising) McCain has surged to 3rd in Iowa and with that, a Huckabee win in Iowa and a win in NH McCain could be on his way to a major comeback. His campaign really needs a 3rd in Iowa and a win in NH. More importantly he needs Mike Huckabee to pull through in Iowa stoping the Mitt Machine.

3rd: Mike Huckabee (steady) He is now dead even in polls with Romney and the momentum could go either way these final days. Huckabee needs a win in Iowa to move on. Without it he won't have the money or momentum to contineue. After he needs a win in Michigan however McCain and Romney or whomever wins NH will be competitive.

4th: Rudy Giuliani (falling) Rudy has now expectations in Iowa NH, Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada. He can afford to lose them all however his make or break state is Florida. Without it hes done. He can only hope he does perform too badly in those early states that woud hurt his campaign.

5th: Fred Thompson (falling) Thompson's Iowa tour is helping but with the surging campaign Thompson might just be a foot ote in this election. Without a 3rd place finish in Iowa Thompson will be out and slip to also ran status. However if Thompson gets a strong finish in Iowa he could surge in SC and win there and then surge to Florida. I dont see this happening but it is a possibility.

6th: Ron Paul (rising) Paul has the money but the question is can he translate that into votes. Paul could finish 4th and maybe even 3rd in NH and 4th in Iowa which would be a strong finish for Congressman Paul, however he has no startegy to win the nomination so look for him to just be a spoiler.

7th: Duncan Hunter (steady) Congressman Hunter has the experience but will finish near dead last in all the contests. The candidate himself knows he will be an also-ran.

8th: Alan Keyes (steady) His last presidential campaign may be his worst. He will likely not finish storng anywhere and doesn't have ballot access in several primaries. Keyes started to late and it has killed any chance he had.

9th: John Cox (steady) Cox did perform a strong campaign and recieved ballot access but dont look for that to translate to anything ober a few hundred votes if even that.

Democrats

1st: Hillary Clinton (steady) Hillary is on top of polls in Iowa, and that means if she wins its over. However polls are always accurate and her lead is within the margin of error. Sen. Clinton may have a terrible upset in Iowa which could lead to losses in NH, Iowa, and SC and then she will be in trouble.

2nd Tied: Barack Obama (steady) Obama is falling in Iowa and he needs a top 2 finish or he will be in trouble in NH. Obama is also slipping in NH and Edwards is rising, so it looks as if Edwards is slowly replacing Obama as the Clinton alternative. Obama must hold on in Iowa or its all over.

2nd Tied: John Edwards (rising) Edwards needs a win in Iowa and he may just get it. Edwards I see right now as the favorite to win Iowa, and with it he could upset Obama and Clinton, probably not Clinton, in NH. That may swing South Carolina a state he won 4 yars agao and lead to a close race in Florida. The cards are looking good for Edwards to upset his 2 main rivals and win the nomination.

4th: Joe Biden (rising) Biden has surprised us with 4th place finishes in most polls. Biden could surprise us here, but probably with nothing more than a 4th plae finish in Iowa and maybe the same in NH.

5th: Bill Richardson (falling) Richardson is falling and now is in a tooth and nail fight for 4th in Iowa with Biden and 4th in NH. Richardson will be out come Nevada.

6th: Dennis Kucinich (falling) Kucinich is concentrating in NH and may surprise us there but its doubtful. Kucinich will be a spoiler liek last time.

7th: Chris Dodd (falling) Dodd is dead last at 1% in all primaries and caucuses. Dodd will be another spoiler and also-ran.

8th: Mike Gravel (steady) At least Gravel is on the ballot in most stats. He won't even get 1% in any state, but he sure did make the debates interesting didn't he?

Decision 2008: The Final Countdown, 6 days and counting

Well after nearly 18 months, of speculating candidates, announcements, exploratory committees, debates, and straw polls the final week of the primary campaign before the primaries start is on. Iowa has never been more important and NH could go either way. These two states could decode the fait of America for the next 4 years.



Iowa GOP: Well we all know this race is coming down to 2 men, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. We may see a darkhorse make this competitive, however if that was going to happen that candidate would be already breathing down the 2 frontrunners's necks. It appears Fred Thompson needs a strong finish here or it will be his last stand. Thompson's Iowa Tour has made him competitve with the surging John McCain for 3rd place, however McCain could survive without a 3rd place finish as he is banking on NH. Thompson needs this or his dead. McCain is starting to campaign now in Iowa so should be interesting to see if Thompson can survive. Huckabee's lead is holding on so I expect Huckabee to defeat Romney by at least 5 points. Even if this Bhutto crisis has hurt his foriegn policy stance. Romney can't get a bounce from that and likely it will only benefit McCain and Giuliani.

Iowa Democratic: The battle of the titans. The three frontrunners, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, are in a tight neck and neck race and once the dust clears from this showdown, the race could completely change. Edwards is gaining and Hillary is rising while Obama is slipping. Should this continue, Obama could be severly wounded and Edwards could replace him as the Hillary Alternative. If Hillary wins Iowa its all over, she will lock up the nomination quickly adn we wont even need to tune in to Super Tuesday. Obama realy needs a 1st or 2nd finish here and Hillary can not win or the Democratic nomination race will be done.

New Hampshire GOP: This race is also a 2 man showdown. Mitt Romney and John McCain and we know this will be competitive. Romney began this 2 day ad war that may control the rest of this primary. McCain is rumored to be striking make with negative ads, since Romney already has gone negative. McCain's strategy is relying on his foriegn policy experience and his latest endorsements to swing his way. McCain seemed not interested in getting in Romney's attack battle, but it appears he may be pressured into it. Romney is slipping here and now is neck and neck with McCain and McCain is known for his comebacks in this state. McCain wins here he wil surge to frontrunner status, and Romney will be severly wounded. Giuliani is hoping for at least a 3rd place finish, but Huckabee could surge with a win in Iowa to get 3rd here.

New Hampshire Democratic: This race will likely be decided on Iowa's result. Hillary wins Iowa she wins here. Obama wins Iowa he wins NH. Edwards likely can't comeback to win here but Iowa's momentum can't be underestimated. This state is crucial however to Hillary's startegy. The Former First Lady could be damaged severly if she doesn't win here. Obama needs this state if he loses Iowa. We can't predict anything without any results from Iowa.

Decision 2008: Iowa down to the wire

Now with Christmas over, the candidates are back on the trail fundraising, speaking shaking hands, doing whatever they can to get ready for the First in the Nation contest, the Iowa Caucus. Republicans are neck and neck with new ARG polls suggesting amybe even a 3-way race or vene 4-way between Huckabee, Romney and even Sen. John McCain and Mayor Giuliani. Their polls had Huckabee 23% Romney 21% McCain 17% Giuliani 14%. Congressman Ron Paul scored 10% in the latest poll and Fred Thompson who needs a good showing here fell to 5th at 3%. These polls show a whole new ball game in Iowa. Huckabee must win Iowa now or his campaign will be finished. Romney could survive a loss in Iowa but a 3rd or 4th finish may kill his chances in New Hampshire. McCain if he can score 3rd or 4th or even 2nd he will be a very strong competitor to be reckoned with now with his NH numbers so high. Giuliani isn't expected to score high in any early state so any place would be good for his campaign. We'll stick to out predictions of 1st: Huckabee 2nd: Romney 3rd: McCain 4th: Thompson. These new Iowa polls also show Hillary way out in front in Iowa. If Sen. Clinton wins Iowa she pretty much caps the nomination. The momentum would be in her collumn and thus swing every state her direction. Obama must get organized as he was a month ago and win this caucus. Edwards must also win here, but a win for Edwards is ultimately a win for Hillary. So it comes down to really If Obama and Hillary winning Iowa that shapes the rest of the race.

New American Reserach Group Iowa Polls

Republicans

(R)Huckabee 23%

(R)Romney 21%

(R)McCain 17%

(R)Giuliani 14%

(R)Paul 10%

(R)Thompson 3%

(R)Hunter 2%

(R)Keyes 2%

Democrats:

(D)Clinton 34%

(D)Edwards 20%

(D)Obama 19%

(D)Biden 8%

(D)Richardson 5%

(D)Dodd 2%

(D)Kucinich 2%

(D)Gravel -%

Happy Holidays from Politics-Central

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2008! Will be back to posting after Christmas!

Decision 2008: Presidential Power Rankings

Here is the last rankings before the break for the Holidays:

Republicans:

1st: Mike Huckabee (rising) Iowa seems to be leaning his way and now with SC, Michigan, Florida and national polls also in Huckabee's pocket, he once again earns a 1st place from us. Huckabee will be a force to be reckoned with after Iowa. He wins there he will be the frontrunner for the nomination without a doubt.

2nd Tied: Mitt Romney (falling) With his lead in Iowa gone and and his lead in NH down to 3, Romney could very well lose both states and his early state strategy is gone and thus his campaign for president. He needs a win in NH to stay alive. Without it hes gone.

2nd Tied: John McCain (rising) He's BACK!!!!!!!! McCain is now in a dead heat for 3rd in Iowa and a win in NH. With both he can secure Michigan, Nevada and possibly South Carolina. McCain needs a win however in NH. If Romney wins he'll steal the momentum back.

4th: Rudy Giulian (falling) Who would have thought Mike Huckabee would be the frontrunner and Giuliani would be near death in the campaign with less than 11 days left till the Iowa Caucus. Scandals and publicity against Rudy really has hurt him and he will likely now place in the top 4 in any early state, execpt for Florida. He needs Florida, without it he'll do poorly on Super Tuesday.

5th: Fred Thompson (falling) Now in a fight for 3rd in Iowa. Without at least 3rd Fred's out. Thompson now falls to 4th in SC, a must win. I just dont see any possibility Fred can win, so will drop him to 5th.

Democrats:

1st Tied: Barak Obama (rising) Yes for the first time Obama has done and shares the frontrunner spot with Sen. Clinton. Obama may very well win all the early states and crush Hillary in Super Tuesday if he infact wins Iowa. He needs a win in Iowa however. 2nd or 3rd to either Hillary or Edwards would kill his campaign and leave Hillary as the nominee.

1st: Tied: Hillary Clinton (falling) Hillary needs a win in NH or she could be in some trouble. The momentum goes to Obama and he could swing the whole thing in an upset. Clinton is now far from having this locked.

3rd: John Edwards (rising) Edwards could in fact win Iowa and not too many are acknowledge that. Edwards however could ahnd the nomination to Hillary. If he wins Iowa Hillary will surge and Obama will fall. Edwards better back off if he doesn't want Hillary to win.

4th: Bill Richardson (steady) Richardson now thinks he has a shot at the top job instead of Hillary's #2. well better get your eyes examined Bill you have no chance.

5th: Joe Biden (steady) too bad the most experience Democrat running is doing so badly. Sorry Joe you dont have a shot either.

Decision 2008: Primary Predictions

Here are our Predictions for the Primary/Caucus Season

Iowa Caucus
GOP:
1st: Huckabee
2nd: Romney
3rd: McCain
4th: Thompson
5th: Giuliani

Dem:
1st: Obama
2nd: Clinton
3rd: Edwards
4th: Richardson
5th: Biden

NH Primary
GOP:
1st: McCain
2nd: Romney
3rd: Huckabee
4th: Giuliani
5th: Paul

Dem:
1st: Clinton
2nd: Obama
3rd: Richardson
4th: Biden
5th: Kucinich
(Edwards wil be out)

SC Primary
GOP:
1st: McCain
2nd: Huckabee
3rd: Thompson
4th: Romney
5th: Giuliani

Dem:
1st: Obama
2nd: Clinton
3rd: Richardson
4th: Biden
5th: Dodd

Michigan
GOP:
1st: McCain
2nd: Huckabee
3rd: Romney
4th: Giuliani
5th: Paul
(Thompson will be otu)

1st: Clinton
No other Dems.

Decision 2008: Huckabee and McCain on the rise!

Well it seems the GOP listened to me when I said switch to Huckabee and McCain, because the two are going nowhere but up in polls. Recent Iowa polls have Former Governor Mike Huckabee 4-6 points ahead of Former Governor Mitt Romney in the first contest of the 2008 primary season. Sen. John McCain has now trippled in just the past two days his numbers in Iowa. He has gone from 6% to 20% according ARG, but I see him more around 15%. Hes definately in a solid 3rd place as of now, and the Des Moines Resgister Endorsement may have hekped. In New Hampshire McCain has surged from 18% last week to 26% now tied with Romney for the lead in NH. This comes after endorsements from endorsements from the Manchester-Union Leader, the Boston Globe, The Portsmouth Hearld and Sen. Joe Lieberman. McCain certainly has the momentum now, after 3 months of being "dead". I will once again precict a Huckabee win in Iowa and a 3rd place finish for McCain in Iowa, and a Win in NH for Sen. McCain. McCain and Huckabee will likely be the frontrunners, with McCain coming out on top! Just wait and see.

Decision 2008: Presidential Power Rankings #43

Sorry about not posting for 3 weeks. Been busy. Ill start posting once the Holidays start. Alot has chnaged since my last rankings. See where we are:

1st: Mike Huckabee (steady) I bet if you told someone 1 year ago Mike Huckabee would be the frontrunner that would have laughed. Now its a reality and a real possibility he could win the nomination. Huckabee leads now in Iowa, SC, Michigan and even Florida!

2nd: Mitt Romney (falling) Losing his lead fast! Romney could be out even before Super Tuesday if somehow Iowa and NH slip from his grasp. New Polls have him slowly gaining on Huckabee, but can he top Huckabee's mounting momentum. Romney better start to sweat.

3rd: John McCain (rising) New Rasmussen Polls have McCain barely trailing Romney 31-27% in NH and now at 14% in Iowa at 3rd place. McCain is also surging quickly and is far from politically dead. I have said it before and Ill say it again McCain will finish well in Iowa and win NH and then the nomination.

4th: Rudy Giuliani (falling) Giuliani now seems to be politically dead. His offices are closing in Iowa and NH, and now Giuliani must rely on winning Florida, a state he is now trailing. Giuliani is also falling in California a big state on Super Tuesday and Huckabee and McCain are gaining. Looks like you all took my advice and starting looking at the best candidates.

5th: Fred Thompson (falling) Thompson needs a 3rd in Iowa and with McCain gaining from the Des Moines Register Endorsement, Thompson may be out before NH. Thompson needs a 3rd just to raise money and keep voters in tact until South Carolina where he's slipped to 4th. I really can't see anyway Fred can win this one. I expect him to drop out and endorse McCain after Iowa.

Democrats

1st: Hillary Clinton (falling) Clinton's lead in all early states is long gone. Her time as frontrunner may be over. She could lose the first 3 contests. She might have to rely also on a win in Florida to win in Super Tuesday. Hillary will likely not be the nominee in January and maybe not even at all.

2nd: Barack Obama (rising) Obama now leads in Iowa and SC. Both could catapult him to knocking Hillary (did I actually say that) out of the race. He win Florida the Former First Lady might be in some real trouble. Obama will likely win Iowa now and maybe NH. Amazing that 3 years ago we didn't even know a Barack Obama.

3rd: John Edwards (rising) Edwards needs to win Iowa and hes only down by single digits. Edwards may surprise us all, but really a win for Edwards is a win for Clinton. That shuts Obama down and leaves her to crush Edwards in NH, SC, FL and Super Tuesday, just like Kerry did in 2004.

4th: Bill Richardson (steady) Richardson needs a win in Nevada and he wont get it so look for him to be applying for Hillary's VP soon.

5th: Joe Biden (steady) Remember this 1 month from now Biden will announce his candidacy for re-election. He's done.